Petrol prices in Lagos could rise to about N1,411 per litre in November if freight, insurance and other import-related costs remain at current levels, an energy analyst has projected.
Kelvin Emmanuel, Managing Partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, said the rising cost of delivering physical petroleum cargoes, particularly freight charges, insurance premiums and the dated Brent price differential, was putting upward pressure on petrol prices.
However, some petroleum marketers have dismissed the projection as speculative, insisting that they are not currently planning another price increase.
Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum market exposes pump prices to fluctuations in international crude oil prices, foreign exchange rates, import financing costs and other supply-chain expenses.
According to industry estimates cited in the report, petroleum products transported to locations outside Lagos attract additional charges of N100 per litre for insurance and truck freight, as well as N40 per litre for throughput.
Analyst explains N1,411 price projection
Emmanuel said the cost of delivering physical cargoes had risen significantly above futures contract prices, making November supply more expensive.
He identified insurance premiums, freight charges and the dated Brent spread as major contributors to the increase, noting that physical cargo deliveries had become about $30 more expensive than futures contracts.
In his calculation for November deliveries, the analyst put the crude oil delivery cost at $145.60, with an additional $1.21 for levies and tariffs imposed by the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency and the Nigerian Ports Authority.
This brought the combined landing cost to $146.81. Applying an exchange-rate factor of 8.50, as stated in his calculation, produced a figure of N1,247.89 per metric tonne.
An additional refinery premium of $80 raised the estimated figure to $1,327.89 per metric tonne.
Emmanuel then applied an exchange-rate adjustment based on N1,400 to N1,351, arriving at an estimated refinery ex-gate price of about N1,376 per litre.
Adding N35 per litre for trucking and related expenses brought the projected pump price in Lagos to approximately N1,411 per litre.
“The biggest denominator in the rising price of petrol are the premiums from insurance, freight, and the dated Brent spread that has made physical cargo delivery $30 more expensive than future contracts,” he said.
He added that Dangote Refinery benchmarks its product prices against import parity because about 40 per cent of its feedstock is sourced internationally.
According to him, domestic crude supplies under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation also involve freight costs of between $9 and $12 per barrel, alongside additional premiums charged by third-party traders involved in crude lifting arrangements.
Emmanuel argued that prices commonly circulated online could be about 30 per cent below the actual cost of landing physical cargoes, whether sourced through imports or domestic crude allocations.
Marketers question projected increase
Despite the forecast, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, described the projected increase as speculative.
Ukadike said crude oil prices had not recorded a further rise that would justify an immediate adjustment in pump prices.
“All those things are speculation,” he said, adding that he was monitoring market developments and would not make pricing decisions based on unconfirmed projections.
He maintained that marketers were not considering an increase at the time, although petrol was already selling for around N1,400 per litre in some parts of the country.
Similarly, the National Publicity Secretary of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Joseph Obele, expressed doubt about another increase.
Obele said the apparent easing of tensions in the Middle East and declining crude oil prices could reduce pressure on petroleum product costs.
However, another independent petroleum marketer, Isa Alheri, said prices could still exceed N1,400 per litre, depending on movements in international crude prices, exchange rates and the cost of refined products.
He explained that freight, insurance and import financing expenses also influenced the replacement cost of petroleum products, meaning marketers might have to adjust pump prices when supply costs increased.
Import pricing remains a concern
The debate over petrol prices comes amid continuing disagreements among petroleum marketers over the competitiveness of imported products and locally refined supplies.
In July 2026, IPMAN raised concerns about imported petrol reportedly being priced at about N1,350 per litre, arguing that the cost was significantly higher than the prices offered by Dangote Petroleum Refinery at the time.
Ukadike had questioned the effectiveness of import licences issued to major marketers to moderate domestic prices, arguing that the policy had not adequately addressed price volatility.
He also criticised the issuance of import licences without sufficient consideration of their potential effect on competition and consumer prices.
The marketer further argued that international Platts pricing for imported petroleum products was about 20 per cent higher than prices offered by Dangote Refinery, making imported supplies less competitive.
As Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market remains exposed to international pricing and foreign exchange movements, the November price outlook will depend on how freight, insurance, crude oil and refined-product costs evolve.
